Smart Phones: Will There Be More Than Two Mobile Platforms?
Eric Savitz
Right now, the smart phone landscape seems completely cluttered with software platforms: IPhone OS, Android, Windows, Symbian, Maemo, BlackBerry OS,WebOS and a number of others. But that’s not likely to be the case forever. Some of the players will end up being exposed as pretenders.
Ashok Kumar, an analyst with Rodman & Renshaw, made the fascinating (and highly controversial) assertion in a research note on Monday that when the dust settles, the market could be down to just two players: Google (GOOG) Androidand Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone.
Kumar in one short note throws out some astounding predictions:
- For starters, he says that Apple “will likely end” its remaining exclusive relationships with the launch of the 4G iPhone; he says that should trigger wider distribution.
- If Nokia’s new version of Symbian fails to gain traction, he contends, the company wilt be forced to adopt either Android or Microsoft Windows Phone 7 as its primary OS. He contends that “the odds are stacked against the survival of Symbian.”
- As for the Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) acquisition of Palm (PALM), he thinks that “without significant increase in spending to woo channel and software partners, HP’s acquisition of Palm will likely fail.”
- Research In Motion (RIMM), he thinks “is not likely to do much better than maintain share” with its pending BlackBerry OS refresh.
- Windows, he says, “remains a wild card.”
So, dear readers, Is Ashok right - are we eventually headed for a smart phone software duopoly?
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