Sunday, February 10, 2013

Nokia's Death Touch for Windows Mobile?


The Seven Biggest Collapses in Mobile Handset or Smartphone History - this is part 3 in the Nokia Disaster analysis series

I started last week with a long analysis series of the individual problems relating to the Nokia mess. Each article will deal only with one aspect of Nokia's current malaise and will include a picture to explain it. I am trying to keep the articles short and readable. If you want to read what Nokia itself identified as the risks to the new Windows strategy, the risks were all itemized in the official filing Nokia did to the USA Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the New York Stock Exchange, using the form 20-F. I visited some of those risks and how much the nightmare scenario has in fact come true under Elop in the past two years. Then I started this series of short single-issue blogs. First I showed how Nokia growth had turned instantly into collapse in February 2011, and then I wrote about Nokia vs Competitors. But this is a blog about just one topic today. The world record in market collapse in the handset industry.

So I did the math for you, and collected the seven biggest collapses in the handset industry, so we can see how Nokia's smartphones now in 2010-2012 under Elop, compare to previous bankruptcy-resulting disasters that forced the company or unit to be sold - Motorola, Palm, Siemens - and the equivalent total failure of Windows Mobile (replaced with no migration path by Windows Phone). And the two that survived their big scares, LG (definitely survived) and RIM (the jury is still out, but currently most think the worst is over). Thats our context, the six worst market failures ever. I will compare all seven, including Nokia where the starting point is harmonized. This is the 'clean' version of the graphic. I will provide one detailed variant, same graph, but with the seven reasons why, at the end of this blog. Use whichever you like (or both) if you feel like writing or speaking about this set of notorious mobile industry collapses.


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