US tablet sales to more than double, says Forrester
US tablet sales should more than double in 2011, says Forrester analyst Sarah Epps. Even though the firm's estimate for 2010 is being increased to 10.3 million units, Epps suggests that 2011 will be still more impressive with sales of 26 million. The trend is in fact predicted to accelerate well beyond the rate of PC sales, resulting in 82.1 million tablets in 2015. By contrast, only 44 million PCs are expected that year.
Epps comments that although most of 2011's tablets are expected to be iPads, a number of competitors should be introduced as soon as this week's CES expo, and the market has "room for more than one player." The impetus for altering industry forecasts is said to be replacement rates, as Forrester now expects the public to treat tablets more like iPhones or MP3 players, rather than full-on computers. "Although they are certainly used for productivity, tablets are proving themselves to be 'lifestyle devices' at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC," says Epps.
"In other words," she adds, "we think a significant number of first-generation iPad buyers will buy iPad 2 when it comes out this year -- many first-gen iPads will end up entertaining the kids in the back of the car while Mom and Dad get the shiny new (likely FaceTime-compatible) model." The second-generation iPad is currently expected to to include front- and rear-facing cameras, as well as a new look more reminiscent of the iPod touch. It could also sport a bigger speaker, and a built-in SD and/or USB slot.
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